Tracy's median home sold for $665,000 in March 2026, down 1.1% year-over-year, with a 37-day median days-on-market and an average of 3 offers per listing — per Redfin Tracy. That's a noticeably different temperature than the inner Bay Area: Fremont sits at a 13-day DOM with 5 offers per listing, and Pinole's bayside Contra Costa stock cooled to 44 days — Tracy slots between them. Where Tracy stands out is what's happening at the top of the city: Tracy Hills, the master-planned hillside community on the south end, is up 8.1% year-over-year at a $758K median.
This is the full 2026 Tracy housing market report: the Tracy Hills ($758K, +8.1% YoY) / Mountain House ($857K) / Redbridge / Pheasant Run / Elissagaray Ranch / Downtown submarket map, the Altamont Pass commuter dynamics that anchor demand from Silicon Valley and the East Bay, the I-205 / I-580 logistics corridor that drives blue-collar jobs into the city, and what sellers at the citywide median actually keep when they swap a 6% traditional commission for a $4,399 LOQOL Charlie AI flat fee.
Tracy at a Glance — 2026 Headline Numbers
| Metric | Tracy (Mar 2026) | Year-Over-Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $665,000 | –1.1% | Redfin Tracy |
| Median days on market | 37 days | +12 days (was 25) | Redfin Tracy |
| Homes sold (Mar 2026) | 57 | +24% (was 46) | Redfin Tracy |
| Average offers per listing | 3 | Flat | Redfin Tracy |
| Tracy Hills median | $758,000 | +8.1% | Redfin Tracy Hills |
| Mountain House (adjacent) | ~$857,000 list median | — | Redfin / MLS |
| San Joaquin County median | $520,000 (Jan 2026) | +1.0% | Redfin San Joaquin County |
The picture is unusual: citywide Tracy is cooling (medians down ~1% YoY, DOM has jumped from 25 to 37 days), but Tracy Hills — the south-side master-planned community designed for Bay Area commuters — is the only Tracy submarket appreciating. The split tells you exactly what kind of buyer is still pulling the trigger in 2026: the Bay Area transplant trading $1.8M in Fremont or San Mateo for an $800K new build with a 90-minute commute over Altamont Pass.
Where the Money Is — The Tracy Submarket Map
Tracy's geography is the geography of who can afford the city. Roughly:
Tracy Hills (south, hillside, master-planned 2018–2026): $758K median, up 8.1% YoY (Redfin Tracy Hills). This is where the Bay Area commuter dollars land. Newer construction (post-2018), 3- and 4-bedroom single-family homes averaging ~$745K, HOA-managed amenities, schools chartered with Jefferson School District. Active marketplace, but inventory is thin — Tracy Hills is the only Tracy neighborhood where bidding wars still happen.
Redbridge / Pheasant Run / Elissagaray Ranch (north and central master-planned): $625K–$700K range. Tract built 2003–2015, slightly older stock than Tracy Hills, slightly cheaper, slightly slower (DOM running 35–55 days), pulled by I-205 commuters who weighed the $80K–$130K savings against the older finishes.
Downtown Tracy / Old Tracy: $500K–$575K. Smaller lots, older homes (pre-1960), walkable to historic downtown and the Tracy Transit Center. The cooling we're seeing in citywide medians is mostly driven here — older homes are the marginal seller, and older homes are the marginal price-cut.
Mountain House (adjacent, separate CDP): ~$857K list median. Technically not in Tracy city limits but bundled with Tracy in most buyer searches because of the I-205 connection. Newer master-planned village (2003–2020), closer to the Alameda County line, faster Bay Area access. Premium over central Tracy reflects roughly $90K in commute time and school district premium.
Hidden Lake / Bright Estates / Boutique Custom: $850K–$1.2M+. Acreage parcels, custom builds, equestrian properties on the southwest side. Thin transaction count (≤10/year) but punches above its weight when it does sell.
Why Tracy Cooled While Tracy Hills Appreciated
Two simultaneous things happened in Tracy from 2024 to 2026:
1. Bay Area outbound migration slowed. The 2020–2022 remote-work shock that pulled tens of thousands of Bay Area buyers into San Joaquin County normalized in 2024. Hybrid return-to-office mandates from Apple, Google, and Meta meant the marginal Tracy buyer in 2026 actually needed to commute 2–3 days a week — and 90-minute Altamont Pass mornings are a different lifestyle bet than they were in 2021.
2. Tracy Hills opened additional phases. New-construction inventory in Tracy Hills kept absorbing the Bay Area commuter dollars that did show up. The result: Tracy Hills appreciated 8.1%, while the rest of Tracy — older stock with longer commutes from less convenient I-205 access — sat. Redbridge and Pheasant Run posted flat to slightly negative price action because their buyer pool was the same commuter dollars Tracy Hills was capturing first.
The macro tells the same story: San Joaquin County overall ran a $520K median in January 2026, up only 1.0% YoY with DOM extending from 49 to 54 days (Redfin San Joaquin County). Tracy is outperforming the county slightly (because Tracy Hills is doing the work), but the spread has narrowed meaningfully versus 2021.
What Tracy Sellers Actually Keep — The Commission Math at Every Price Tier
At a $665K citywide median, a traditional 6% listing commission costs $39,900. That's before any of the seller's net equity is touched — before mortgage payoff, before tax prorations, before title and escrow fees. Here's what every Tracy price tier looks like at 5%, 6%, and a flat $4,399 LOQOL Charlie AI fee:
| Tracy Sale Price | Traditional 5% | Traditional 6% | LOQOL Charlie AI | LOQOL White Glove | You Keep vs 6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 (Downtown SFH) | $25,000 | $30,000 | $4,399 | ~$7,000 | $25,601 |
| $575,000 (Old Tracy / starter) | $28,750 | $34,500 | $4,399 | ~$8,000 | $30,101 |
| $665,000 (Tracy median) | $33,250 | $39,900 | $4,399 | ~$9,500 | $35,501 |
| $758,000 (Tracy Hills median) | $37,900 | $45,480 | $4,399 | ~$11,000 | $41,081 |
| $857,000 (Mountain House list) | $42,850 | $51,420 | $4,399 | ~$13,000 | $47,021 |
| $1,100,000 (Hidden Lake custom) | $55,000 | $66,000 | $7,999 | $15,000 | $58,001 |
At the Tracy median, the seller who lists with LOQOL Charlie AI keeps $35,501 more than the same seller listing at 6% traditional. At the Tracy Hills median, the gap is $41,081. That gap is the entire reason flat-fee is the fastest-growing segment of California real estate post-NAR settlement.
LOQOL is a licensed California real estate brokerage (CA DRE #02261474). Every listing has a licensed California agent of record. Charlie is the AI agent that handles the workflow — the MLS entry, the price-modeling, the showing scheduling, the offer negotiation logistics, the document execution — but a human California licensee signs the documents and represents the seller. The flat fee is the price for the workflow. The seller keeps the rest.
The Tracy Buyer Pool Is Different Than the Rest of San Joaquin County
Stockton, Lodi, and even Manteca lean local — buyers are largely from San Joaquin County or the Central Valley moving up. Tracy is structurally different because of the Altamont Pass commuter premium. Roughly:
- 45–55% of Tracy home purchases in 2026 are Bay Area commuters — first-time owners priced out of Pleasanton, Livermore, Fremont, and San Jose, willing to trade 80–100 minutes each way for a $400K cheaper SFH.
- The Altamont commute is the price floor: as long as that gap exists, Tracy has Bay Area buyer demand.
- Tracy Hills specifically targets this buyer: new construction, master-planned, three-bay garages, K–12 schools, the things Bay Area transplants are trying to buy back when they leave Pleasanton.
This is why citywide Tracy can cool 1.1% YoY while Tracy Hills appreciates 8.1%. The buyer pool is different. The commute is the same. The newer, hillside, master-planned product wins.
The Altamont Pass / I-205 / I-580 Job Engine
Tracy's economy beyond the commuter rent is logistics. The city sits on the I-205 / I-580 / I-5 triangle — one of the highest-volume distribution hubs in Northern California. Major employers and operations in or adjacent to Tracy include:
- Amazon TRC1 fulfillment center (1.2M sqft, opened 2014, expanded since)
- Costco Distribution Tracy (regional distribution hub)
- FedEx Ground Tracy hub
- Crystal Geyser / Sysco / Safeway distribution
- Owens-Illinois Glass Tracy plant
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in nearby Livermore (a meaningful slice of Tracy commuters work there — 35-minute drive)
The logistics jobs anchor the demand for Tracy's sub-$700K stock. The Bay Area commute anchors demand at Tracy Hills and Mountain House. Both demand pools are still there — they're just both growing slower than they were in 2021.
Buyer-Agent Compensation After NAR Settlement — How It Changes Tracy
Effective August 17, 2024, listing agents in the MLS can no longer advertise buyer-agent compensation alongside the listing (NAR Settlement FAQs). California went further with Assembly Bill 2992, effective January 1, 2026, requiring every buyer to sign a written buyer-broker agreement before touring homes.
What this means for Tracy sellers in 2026:
- You no longer "pre-set" the buyer-agent fee. The buyer brings their compensation expectations as part of their offer.
- You can still pay buyer-agent compensation as a concession — and most Tracy buyers (especially Bay Area transplants) will request it. But the negotiation is now offer-by-offer, not built into the listing.
- The 2026 reality: Tracy listings typically still result in the seller covering 2–3% of buyer-agent compensation as part of an accepted offer, but the seller has stronger negotiating leverage than under the pre-settlement MLS regime.
Listing commission and buyer-agent compensation are now two separate negotiations. LOQOL Charlie AI's $4,399 flat fee covers the listing side. The buyer-agent side is what you negotiate inside the offer.
Tracy Real Estate Sources & Citations
- Redfin Tracy Housing Market — $665K median, 37-day DOM, 3 offers, 57 sales (March 2026)
- Redfin Tracy Hills Neighborhood — $758K median, +8.1% YoY
- Redfin San Joaquin County Housing Market — $520K median (Jan 2026), +1.0% YoY
- California DRE License Lookup — LOQOL #02261474
- NAR Settlement FAQs — buyer-agent compensation rules post-Aug 2024
Tracy Housing Market FAQ — 2026
What is the median home price in Tracy CA in 2026?
$665,000 in March 2026, down 1.1% year-over-year per Redfin Tracy. Tracy Hills runs higher at $758K, Mountain House higher still at ~$857K list.
How long do homes take to sell in Tracy?
Median days on market is 37 days in March 2026 — up from 25 days a year prior. The 12-day extension reflects citywide cooling, though Tracy Hills new construction continues to move faster.
Is Tracy a good market for sellers in 2026?
Yes, with caveats. Inventory is moving (57 sales in March 2026, up from 46 a year earlier), 3 offers per listing on average. The seller's edge comes from positioning — a Tracy Hills or new Mountain House seller still operates in a competitive market; an older Downtown Tracy seller is in a balanced market.
How does Tracy compare to other Bay Area commuter markets?
Tracy ($665K) is significantly cheaper than Livermore ($1.2M), Pleasanton ($1.5M+), or Fremont ($1.5M) — but at the cost of a 60–100 minute commute via Altamont Pass. The price gap is roughly $500K–$800K for a comparable SFH.
What does a flat-fee real estate brokerage cost in Tracy?
LOQOL Charlie AI is $4,399 flat for homes priced under $1M (which covers essentially all of Tracy citywide and Tracy Hills). White Glove full-service is approximately $9,500 at the $665K median. Compared to a 6% traditional commission of $39,900, the LOQOL Charlie AI seller keeps $35,501 more at the median.
Are Bay Area buyers still moving to Tracy in 2026?
Yes — but at a slower pace than 2021. Hybrid return-to-office requirements at Apple, Google, and Meta have reduced the pure-remote buyer pool. The Bay Area transplant share is still meaningful (estimated 45–55% of Tracy purchases) but the marginal buyer is now a hybrid commuter, not a fully remote one.
Do I still pay buyer-agent commission as a Tracy seller post-NAR settlement?
Buyer-agent compensation is negotiated in the buyer's offer post-Aug 2024, not pre-set by the seller. Most Tracy listings still result in the seller covering 2–3% buyer-agent compensation as part of the accepted offer, but the negotiation is now offer-by-offer.
What to Do Next If You're Selling a Tracy Home in 2026
If you're listing a Tracy home in 2026 — whether Tracy Hills, Redbridge, Old Tracy, or Mountain House — the highest-leverage decision before the home goes on the market is the listing compensation model. A 6% traditional commission at the $665K median costs $39,900. A flat $4,399 LOQOL Charlie AI fee covers the listing-side workflow with a licensed California agent of record on the documents.
For the full breakdown of how flat-fee real estate works in California — and how LOQOL compares to Houzeo, Homecoin, Redfin, and Compass — see Flat Fee vs 6% Commission in California: What Sellers Actually Pay in 2026. For the Houzeo / Homecoin comparison specifically, see Houzeo vs Homecoin vs LOQOL California Flat-Fee MLS Comparison 2026.
For the county-level commission math across Tracy, Manteca, Stockton, Lodi, and Mountain House, the San Joaquin County commission breakdown follows the same flat-fee structure documented in the statewide pillar above.